19 Observations on the mining and refining of critical minerals

t is commonly believed that “If one controls the mine, one controls the market.” This assumption sits quietly beneath many discussions about critical minerals. It feels intuitive. Mining is visible. Reserves are measurable. Extraction is often framed as national strength and new mining projects are frequently presented as evidence of supply security or strategic independence. As a result, debates around critical minerals tend to focus on familiar questions: Who controls the reserves? Who owns the mines? How quickly can new deposits be brought online?

A persistent assumption in critical-minerals strategy is that the presence of geological reserves is equivalent to the availability of usable material. While resources in the ground are correctly recognized as the starting point of the supply chain, they are often treated implicitly as if they already satisfy downstream requirements. This collapses a multi-stage industrial process into a single geological condition.

For years, the global conversation around critical minerals focused on mining, where resources are located, who controls reserves, and how quickly projects could be permitted. Refining, by contrast, was treated as a downstream detail: necessary, but secondary.

While refining capacity shrank or stalled in many regions, China maintained continuous activity across both resource development and processing. Feedstock supply remained stable, facilities improved and expanded in place through uninterrupted operation, and operational improvements accumulated without interruption.

Refining capability in a country cannot be restored simply by constructing new facilities. Physical infrastructure can be built within defined timelines, but refining capability does not emerge from construction alone. It depends on appropriate refining technologies, experienced workforce and sustained access to suitable feed material. The feedstock must produce specific-grade outputs and be available in sufficient quantities over long periods of time. Refining facilities are designed to operate for decades; therefore their viability depends on stable, long term feedstock supply plans evaluated before new refining capacity is planned.

It is well known that Africa holds a significant share of the world’s mineral resources, including the majority of global reserves for several critical metals. Yet, very little refining of these reserves takes place within the continent. The contrast becomes more pronounced along the value chain, where mining captures only a fraction of the total value and the real value is created in midstream, at the processing and refining stage.